Description

This analysis provides a forecast of KAS prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-04-06 0.044277 0.050911 0.057823 0.065529 0.073851 0.082538 0.092263
2025-04-13 0.032499 0.041928 0.052421 0.064812 0.078898 0.094281 0.112216
2025-04-20 0.027744 0.039268 0.052766 0.069384 0.088959 0.110977 0.137315
2025-04-27 0.021557 0.033711 0.048722 0.067981 0.091434 0.118532 0.151686
2025-05-04 0.018491 0.031453 0.048172 0.070317 0.097965 0.130536 0.171028
2025-05-11 0.014993 0.028031 0.045662 0.069803 0.100707 0.137816 0.184660
2025-05-18 0.013102 0.026543 0.045439 0.071998 0.106655 0.148869 0.202760
2025-05-25 0.011367 0.025002 0.044927 0.073645 0.111796 0.158877 0.219596
2025-06-01 0.008961 0.022002 0.042033 0.071817 0.112248 0.162918 0.229043
2025-06-08 0.006994 0.019354 0.039357 0.070035 0.112556 0.166630 0.237980
2025-06-15 0.006162 0.018578 0.039408 0.072019 0.117833 0.176639 0.254772
2025-06-22 0.005258 0.017494 0.038858 0.073052 0.121777 0.184926 0.269427
2025-06-29 0.004666 0.017016 0.039370 0.075843 0.128451 0.197188 0.289716
2025-07-06 0.003656 0.015416 0.037900 0.075630 0.131001 0.204183 0.303514
2025-07-13 0.003540 0.015861 0.039943 0.080801 0.141161 0.221283 0.330375
2025-07-20 0.002598 0.013994 0.037741 0.079288 0.141795 0.225750 0.341026
2025-07-27 0.002258 0.013614 0.038168 0.081867 0.148267 0.238016 0.361798
2025-08-03 0.001677 0.012294 0.036692 0.081303 0.150137 0.244081 0.374531
2025-08-10 0.001434 0.011957 0.037065 0.083718 0.156353 0.256040 0.395005
2025-08-17 0.001183 0.011474 0.037090 0.085528 0.161671 0.266796 0.413944
2025-08-24 0.000759 0.010010 0.034921 0.083519 0.161208 0.269571 0.422320
2025-08-31 0.000452 0.008694 0.032869 0.081558 0.160706 0.272217 0.430480
2025-09-07 0.000361 0.008465 0.033201 0.083741 0.166503 0.283617 0.450322